Overview
- The Council on Foreign Relations’ Preventive Priorities Survey rates a renewed India–Pakistan armed conflict in 2026 as a moderate-likelihood scenario tied to heightened terrorist activity, categorized as Tier II with moderate impact.
- The survey also assesses a moderate likelihood of renewed Pakistan–Afghanistan fighting triggered by resurgent cross-border militant attacks, with lower impact on U.S. interests.
- The warning follows a four-day India–Pakistan confrontation in May 2025 after the Pahalgam attack and October exchanges along the Durand Line that produced casualties and strained relations.
- Since the May flare-up, India cleared large procurement packages for drones and munitions while Pakistan pursued new drones and air defenses from Turkey and China, raising miscalculation risks.
- The report places these South Asia risks alongside other global flashpoints, including Gaza and the West Bank, the Russia–Ukraine war, potential U.S. military action in Venezuela, and rising political violence within the United States.