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CFP Weighs 16-Team Expansion as Bye Problem and Upsets Intensify Pressure

Financial incentives loom as commissioners weigh changes before a Jan. 23 decision window.

Overview

  • Teams granted opening-round byes are 1–7 in quarterfinals over two seasons, sharpening calls to scrap byes in any new format.
  • A 16-team bracket is under serious discussion as a fix, though calendar congestion, bowl tie-ins and TV logistics remain obstacles.
  • This season’s semifinals feature No. 1 Indiana, No. 5 Oregon, No. 6 Mississippi and No. 10 Miami after multiple quarterfinal upsets.
  • Conference narratives shifted as the Big Ten posted a strong postseason and the Big 12 remained winless in the expanded CFP era.
  • Commentary highlights the money at stake, citing ESPN’s six-year, $7.8 billion deal and escalating team and coaching payouts as forces favoring further expansion.