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CFP Bubble Stakes for Miami and Notre Dame Tighten as Championship Results Near

Committee rankings currently put Notre Dame ahead of Miami despite the head-to-head loss, heightening the importance of Saturday’s title-game outcomes.

Overview

  • The penultimate CFP list has Notre Dame at No. 10 and Miami at No. 12, with both 10-2 and awaiting Sunday’s final reveal after conference championships.
  • Boise State’s Mountain West title on Friday modestly boosted Notre Dame’s strength of schedule, and a committee member noted idle teams can still move based on championship results.
  • Analysts outline pivotal scenarios: a BYU upset of Texas Tech or the margin in Georgia–Alabama could shift which at-large teams make the 12-team field, with projections warning Miami and BYU could be squeezed if favorites win.
  • Miami coach Mario Cristobal is pressing the head-to-head win and stronger margins versus common foes, while Notre Dame’s case emphasizes a 10-game win streak, dominant point differentials and top-tier advanced metrics.
  • Debate over criteria and perceived bias has intensified, oddsmakers make Notre Dame a slight favorite in a hypothetical rematch, and Irish AD Pete Bevacqua has publicly advocated expanding the CFP to 16 teams.