Overview
- San Diego State University psychologist Jean Twenge reports that CES data show transgender identification among 18- to 22-year-olds nearly halved from 2022 to 2024, with nonbinary identification falling by more than half from 2023 to 2024.
- Twenge previously noted a mid-2024 dip in the Household Pulse Survey for this age group but cautioned that the period was brief and coincided with the addition of a nonbinary response option in two of three administrations.
- The CES, fielded by YouGov and administered by Tufts University, uses a nonprobability panel and asks a direct transgender identity question as well as a separate gender item that includes a nonbinary option.
- Eric Kaufmann’s earlier claim of a rapid decline drew on campus-focused datasets from FIRE and elite schools such as Brown and Phillips Academy Andover, which emphasized identities other than male or female rather than a direct transgender question.
- Analysts propose shifting social acceptance or a post‑surge correction as possible explanations, while noting that additional 2025 data will be needed to assess whether the decline persists.