Overview
- CEPAL's report, published Oct. 22, 2026, trimmed Argentina's 2026 GDP forecast from 3.3% to 1.9% and lowered 2027 to 3.0%, placing the country below several South American peers.
- The agency cited slower employment growth, a modest upward trend in inflation and more expensive external financing as the main constraints that will limit household income and consumption.
- Official monthly activity data show the economy losing momentum with year-on-year declines in July and August and a quarterly contraction in Q2, reinforcing the need for a weaker growth path.
- CEPAL expects a sharp swing in trade next year with goods exports up about 19% and services exports up about 17% while goods imports fall, creating a gap between external receipts and fragile domestic demand.
- Financial stress is elevated with sovereign risk indicators above 700 basis points, and CEPAL flags climate risks, commodity swings and global financing costs as factors that could further change the outlook.