Overview
- At a recent CEO gathering reported by the Wall Street Journal, 66% of leaders said they will cut or hold head count in 2026, reflecting a wait-and-see approach to AI.
- Federal Reserve governor Christopher Waller said companies are pausing hiring to assess AI’s impact, warning the labor market is near zero job growth.
- U.S. unemployment rose to 4.6% in November, the highest in four years, with economists noting shutdown-related data distortions even as hiring trends have cooled.
- JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs expect sluggish labor gains in early 2026 with unemployment near 4.5%, then firmer growth later helped by tax stimulus, fading tariff drag and prior Fed rate cuts.
- AI-related capital spending remains strong but has not produced broad job creation, while 2025 corporate bankruptcies climbed to 717 through November, signaling continued restructuring pressure.