CEO Confidence Plummets as Majority Predict U.S. Recession

A new survey highlights growing pessimism among business leaders, fueled by Trump’s erratic tariff policies and escalating economic uncertainty.

A Chief Executive Group survey reveals 62% of U.S. CEOs anticipate a slowdown or recession within six months, up from 48% in March.
CEO confidence in current business conditions has dropped to its lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic, with a 28% decline since January 2025.
President Trump’s unpredictable tariff policies have disrupted financial markets and worsened consumer sentiment, intensifying economic concerns.
High-profile executives, including Ray Dalio and Jamie Dimon, warn of potential severe economic downturns, with some suggesting risks beyond a typical recession.
In response to the bleak outlook, 39% of CEOs plan to reduce headcount, while only 37% expect profit growth this year, down sharply from earlier projections.