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Centene Slashes 2025 Outlook After ACA Shock as Investors Weigh 2026 Rate-Driven Rebound

The investment case now hinges on whether state-approved premium hikes can restore margins in 2026.

Overview

  • Centene absorbed roughly a $2.4 billion charge tied to a sicker Affordable Care Act member pool, taking the full impact in the latest quarter.
  • Management cut 2025 earnings guidance to about $1.75 per share from a prior $7.25, signaling ongoing near-term profit pressure.
  • Shares fell to decade‑low levels near $25 and trade at depressed valuation multiples, including single‑digit trailing P/E figures cited by Yahoo Finance.
  • Early state approvals indicate sizable ACA premium increases averaging around 27%, which proponents say could support a 2026 earnings recovery.
  • Analyst commentary highlights elevated medical costs and questions around Centene’s historical advantages, framing the stock as high‑risk with potential multi‑year upside if margins normalize.