Overview
- Polls released Tuesday showed Celina Leão leading Leandro Grass, with Real Time Big Data reporting 59% to 41% of valid votes.
- The Real Time Big Data survey interviewed 1,600 Distrito Federal voters, had a margin of error of ±2 percentage points, and is registered with the electoral court.
- That survey finds about 93% of voters say their second-round choice is decided, a level of firmness that reduces the room for last-minute swings.
- Measured rejection is similar for both candidates at roughly 22–23%, with 23% rejecting both and 32% rejecting neither, pointing to notable mutual negatives among voters.
- The runoff is scheduled for October 25, and the small share of undecided or blank votes together with turnout could still affect the final result despite the current poll leads.