Overview
- Annual CEBR projections estimate UK nominal GDP rising from just under $4 trillion in 2025 to about $6.8 trillion by 2040.
- On this basis the UK would rank fifth behind the United States, China, India and Germany, with Japan slipping to sixth.
- The report forecasts China at just under $48 trillion versus $53 trillion for the US in 2040, with China projected to overtake the US on current-price GDP around 2045.
- India is projected to be the world’s third-largest economy by 2040 and remains on course to lead by century’s end, while Indonesia is seen entering the top ten in the early 2030s.
- Global growth is expected to slow to roughly 2.5% next year, which the CEBR links to elevated uncertainty from higher US tariffs and broader structural headwinds.