Overview

• President Trump’s June 24 ceasefire declaration between Israel and Iran has already been breached by both sides, casting doubt on its durability.
• Brent and WTI crude futures plunged about 14% over two days to below $70 a barrel as traders weighed reduced supply threats.
• Daily vessel transits through the Strait have held above 100 ships, but GPS signal interference has forced a 20% operational reduction.
• Iran’s parliament endorsed potential closure of the strait, driving up tanker insurance rates and shipping surcharges.
• Major importers like India, which routes 45% of its oil and 54% of its LNG via Hormuz, are accelerating efforts to diversify supply chains.