Overview
- Insa’s Feb. 23–27 survey puts the Union at 26% and the AfD at 25%, the first Union lead in this series since September.
- More than 44% is needed for a parliamentary majority under current calculations, leaving typical two- or three-party options short.
- Insa chief Hermann Binkert points to a Kenya coalition of CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens at 52% as the most realistic governing option.
- A Union–SPD tie-up would reach 42% and SPD–Greens–Left 37%, while a Union–AfD majority of 51% is treated as politically implausible.
- Approval remains weak: 25% are satisfied with Chancellor Friedrich Merz and 64% dissatisfied; only 23% rate the federal government’s work positively, with 67% dissatisfied.