Overview
- CDP leader Yoshihiko Noda and Komeito leader Tetsuo Saito announced the merger agreement on Jan. 15 at the Diet, positioning the new party for a vote widely reported as likely on Feb. 8.
- Under the deal, Komeito will not field candidates in any single-member districts and will support CDP-aligned contenders, while Komeito-origin candidates receive favorable ranking on the joint proportional slate.
- A Jiji Press simulation based on 2024 results estimates roughly 35 districts could flip if about 10,000 Komeito votes per seat shift to CDP candidates, potentially making the new bloc the largest, though this remains hypothetical.
- Local responses signal execution risks, with a Komeito official in Tochigi calling the path difficult and questioning whether supporters will fully transfer votes to CDP-backed candidates.
- LDP tax chief Itsunori Onodera said the shift could affect tight races, while reports indicate the party name is due on Jan. 16 and the bloc is expected to start with about 172 lower-house members under co-leaders Noda and Saito.