Overview

• The updated forecast, based on tariffs in effect through August 19, revises June’s estimate upward and credits $3.3 trillion in lower primary deficits plus roughly $700 billion in interest savings.
• Treasury data show nearly $156 billion in customs revenue through August 22, and Secretary Scott Bessent now says annual collections could top $500 billion and potentially approach $1 trillion.
• Economists caution the duties function like a tax on U.S. consumers and warn higher prices and weaker growth could reduce the fiscal gains.
• A federal appeals court is weighing whether the president exceeded his authority in imposing many levies, creating legal risk that could unwind part of the regime.
• The administration touts the CBO figure even as its recently enacted One Big Beautiful Bill is estimated to add about $4.1 trillion to debt over 2025–2034.