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CBO Warns Trump Tax Law Could Force $415 Billion Sequestration in 2026

Medicare alone would face more than $500 billion in cuts over 2026–2034 under the 2010 Pay-As-You-Go Act if Congress does not offset the package’s deficit impact.

Overview

  • The CBO analysis specifies that OMB must issue a sequestration order within 14 days after Congress adjourns to cut $415 billion from fiscal 2026 spending under the Pay-As-You-Go law.
  • Medicare reductions are capped at 4 percent annually, translating to roughly $45 billion in 2026 and rising to $76 billion by 2034, with $491 billion in cuts projected for 2027–2034.
  • Including fiscal 2026, cumulative Medicare reductions would exceed $500 billion, forcing deeper across-the-board cuts to other direct spending accounts.
  • Democrats urged bipartisan legislation to offset the tax-and-spending package’s deficit effects, while House Republicans defended its growth claims and highlighted $50 billion in rural hospital funding.
  • Sequestration has never been triggered under the 2010 law, and lawmakers now face a narrow window to enact offsets and prevent automatic cuts.