Overview

• The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and Urban Institute released analyses showing millions could lose Medicaid coverage under GOP proposals to achieve $880 billion in savings over a decade.
• Speaker Mike Johnson confirmed that Republicans will not pursue cuts to the federal Medicaid matching rate (FMAP) or per-capita funding caps, but alternative reforms like work requirements and stricter eligibility checks remain under consideration.
• Moderate Republicans and swing-district lawmakers oppose significant Medicaid cuts, while fiscal conservatives push for deeper savings to fund extensions of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts.
• Public polling and MAGA influencers, including Laura Loomer, highlight broad opposition to Medicaid reductions, particularly in rural and red-state constituencies reliant on the program.
• The GOP faces a Memorial Day deadline for budget reconciliation, with leadership navigating tensions between fiscal hawks and centrists to finalize a plan that balances Medicaid reforms with political and electoral pressures.