Overview

• The update finds effective tariff rates are roughly 18 percentage points higher than a year earlier, boosting projected customs revenue.
• If sustained, the CBO projects $3.3 trillion less in primary deficits plus $700 billion lower interest costs over the next decade.
• The revision marks a sizable increase from June’s estimate and will feed into a short-term forecast due September 12.
• The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimates up to $2.8 trillion in deficit reduction under a permanent-tariff scenario, underscoring uncertainty over durability.
• Economists warn tariffs function like a tax on U.S. consumers, and Justin Wolfers says there is close to no chance the current levies last through 2035 as national debt exceeds $37 trillion.