Overview

• The CBO and Joint Committee on Taxation initially estimated a $3.4 trillion deficit increase over 2025–2034 before debt-service costs.
• CBO Director Phillip Swagel reported that $718 billion in added interest pushes the total impact to $4.1 trillion over the period.
• The updated figures imply federal debt held by the public will rise by 9.5 percentage points of GDP by the end of 2034.
• Analysis shows that making 10 temporary tax relief provisions permanent would add $789 billion in primary deficits and bring the total cost near $5 trillion.
• Several Republicans, including Rep. Thomas Massie and Sen. Rand Paul, branded the legislation a "debt bomb ticking" and House Speaker Mike Johnson disputed the initial estimate.