Overview
- New CBO scenarios estimate $7 billion in unrecoverable GDP loss if the shutdown ends this week, $11 billion if it runs six weeks, and $14 billion if it lasts eight weeks.
- CBO attributes the damage to delayed compensation for federal employees, postponed purchases of goods and services, and reduced benefits, with output rebounding only partly after reopening.
- Agency data indicate roughly 600,000 federal employees are excepted to work each week without pay while about 650,000 are furloughed on average.
- Food assistance faces immediate strain, with USDA warning SNAP payments could halt as soon as Nov. 1 and CBO incorporating a 50% probability that benefits are paid after Oct. 31 if the lapse continues.
- The stalemate—driven by a dispute over extending enhanced Affordable Care Act subsidies—has reached Day 29, with repeated Senate failures to advance a short‑term funding bill and the shutdown now the second‑longest on record.