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CBO Puts Shutdown’s Lasting Cost at Up to $14 Billion as Fed Flags Ongoing Drag

The budget office’s estimate highlights widespread worker disruptions that leave hundreds of thousands unpaid.

Overview

  • The partial federal shutdown has stretched into a fifth week with no funding agreement in Congress.
  • New CBO scenarios project a permanent loss of $7 billion if the lapse ends within days, $11 billion if it lasts about six weeks to mid‑November, and $14 billion if it continues into late November, and it says fourth‑quarter growth could be trimmed by about 1–2%.
  • The CBO reports roughly 650,000 federal employees are furloughed and about 600,000 are working without pay, disrupting services across agencies.
  • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said the funding lapse is weighing on economic activity for now, while Treasury chief Scott Bessent has warned of potential daily losses of up to $15 billion.
  • Vice President J.D. Vance said the administration expects to pay some service members on October 31 but not all, without specifying the funding source.