Overview

• CBO estimates a permanent extension would increase insurance coverage by roughly 3.6–3.8 million people and lower benchmark marketplace premiums by about 7.6% on average over the next decade.
• House Republican leaders’ stopgap funding plan omits the subsidy extension as Speaker Mike Johnson characterizes it as a later policy matter, while Democratic leaders press to secure it before open enrollment.
• CBO notes that passing the extension before Sept. 30 would trim projected 2026 premiums by about 2.4% and would alter federal cost and enrollment estimates compared with later action.
• Insurers are planning median premium increases near 18% for 2026, and analyses suggest that losing the enhanced credits could leave many enrollees facing roughly 75% higher net premiums next year.
• Hospital systems warn of broader fallout if the credits lapse, with Ascension citing potential average premium jumps near 93% for affected groups and Providence forecasting more emergency visits and financial strain.