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CBO Projects U.S. Population to Stop Growing in 2056, Then Decline

The budget office links the downgrade to stricter immigration enforcement, an aging population, low fertility.

Overview

  • Over the next 30 years, the population is now forecast to reach about 364 million, 2.2% below last year’s projection.
  • Deaths are expected to exceed births by 2030, leaving immigration as the only source of population growth in the near term.
  • The forecast reflects the Trump administration’s restrictive policies, including expanded deportations and a July law with roughly $150 billion for enforcement.
  • A September CBO update anticipated about 320,000 removals over a decade, while 2025 surveys reported sharp immigrant declines that some experts say may reflect measurement issues.
  • Slower growth intensifies pressure on Social Security and Medicare and points to a smaller future labor force.