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CBO Projects 10 Million More Uninsured Under Trump Tax and Spending Law

The CBO’s update forecasts steep coverage losses from phased-in Medicaid work mandates with SNAP restrictions that tilt benefits toward wealthier households.

President Donald Trump speaks with reporters in the James Brady Press Briefing Room at the White House, Monday, Aug. 11, 2025, in Washington. (AP Photo/Mark Schiefelbein)
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U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to the press about deploying federal law enforcement agents in Washington to bolster the local police presence, in the Press Briefing Room at the White House, in Washington D.C., U.S., August 11, 2025. REUTERS/Annabelle Gordon
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Overview

  • The CBO projects about 10 million additional Americans will lack health insurance over the next decade due to new Medicaid eligibility checks and tax changes enacted in July.
  • Households in the lowest income decile are forecast to lose an average of $1,200 per year, whereas the wealthiest 10 percent stand to gain more than $13,000 from expanded tax cuts.
  • Updated estimates indicate roughly 2.4 million SNAP recipients will be rendered ineligible under the law’s new work requirements for food assistance.
  • Key eligibility changes, including stricter Medicaid reviews and mandatory community engagement rules, are set to phase in over the coming months, extending coverage reductions through 2034.
  • Democratic lawmakers decry the law as favoring affluent Americans at the expense of low-income households, while the White House emphasizes its tax relief, economic stimulus, and border security provisions ahead of the midterms.