Particle.news
Download on the App Store
5 ARTICLES
·
2d ago

CBO Forecasts U.S. Population Flatlines by 2056 as Deaths Outnumber Births by 2030

With births projected to trail deaths from 2030, immigration becomes the swing factor in the outlook.

FILE - People stand in Times Square in New York, Aug. 9, 2024. (AP Photo/Pamela Smith, File)
Americans aged 65 and older are the fastest-growing segment of the population, pushing the “old-age dependency ratio” sharply higher.
Image

Overview

  • The 30-year projection shows the population rising from about 349 million in 2026 to 364 million in 2056 before declining thereafter.
  • Net immigration is expected to be the only source of growth after 2030, with the CBO warning that future laws and enforcement changes could significantly alter the path.
  • Stricter immigration enforcement, including measures funded in the 2025 Reconciliation Act, is estimated to reduce the population by roughly 320,000 over the next decade.
  • CBO lowers its long-run fertility assumption to about 1.53 births per woman and projects fewer births among women under 30 with modest increases among women over 30.
  • An aging population and slower labor-force growth pose budget pressures, with the CBO highlighting significant implications for Social Security and Medicare.