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CBO Forecasts $3.4 Trillion Deficit Rise and 10 Million More Uninsured Under Trump’s One Big Beautiful Bill

Polls show a majority of Americans disapprove of the law, expecting higher health-care costs as cuts to Medicaid and SNAP take effect.

The US Capitol is seen in Washington, DC, on July 16, 2025. (Photo by Alex WROBLEWSKI / AFP) (Photo by ALEX WROBLEWSKI/AFP via Getty Images)
President Donald Trump holds his signed signature bill of tax breaks and spending cuts at the White House, Friday, July 4, 2025, in Washington, as House Speaker Mike Johnson of La., left, watches and Rep. Steve Scalise, R-La., takes a photo. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

Overview

  • The CBO projects the law will add $3.4 trillion to federal deficits from 2025 through 2034.
  • Cuts to Medicaid and SNAP combined with the scheduled end of ACA premium subsidies are projected to leave 10 million more Americans uninsured by 2034.
  • Permanent extensions of Trump’s 2017 tax cuts and new deductions for tips and overtime are set to benefit higher-income taxpayers disproportionately.
  • CBS/YouGov polling finds 57 percent of Americans anticipate higher health-care costs under the law and 60 percent disapprove overall.
  • An AP-NORC survey reports nearly two-thirds of respondents believe the legislation favors the wealthy, driving its prominence in 2026 midterm campaign messaging.