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CBO Forecasts $3.3 Trillion Deficit Rise From Trump’s Bill as Senate Prepares Rescissions Vote

The Congressional Budget Office’s decade-long outlook reveals a surge in debt and coverage losses by 2034 as Republicans ready a vote to claw back $9.4 billion in public media and foreign aid funding

FILE - Sen. Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., talks after a policy luncheon on Wednesday, July 9, 2025, at the Capitol in Washington. (AP Photo/Mariam Zuhaib, File)
FILE – U.S. Rep. David Valadao, R-Calif., poses for a photo in Washington on Jan. 6, 2015. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin, File)
An oil pumpjack is seen near a field of wind turbines on October 4, 2023 in Nolan, Texas.
President Donald Trump signs his tax and budget bill from the South Lawn of the White House on July 4, in Washington, DC.

Overview

  • The law’s permanent tax cuts and bump in defense and immigration spending are active, while deep Medicaid and SNAP reductions are postponed until 2027
  • The CBO estimates a $4.5 trillion drop in revenues and $1.2 trillion in added spending will drive deficits up by $3.3 trillion over the next decade
  • Analysts project 11.8 million more uninsured Americans and 3 million fewer SNAP beneficiaries by 2034 under the new legislation
  • Senate Republicans plan this week’s vote under DOGE rules to rescind $9.4 billion from public broadcasting and USAID programs
  • Both parties are already framing the 2026 House campaigns around tax relief versus safety-net cuts, with Democrats eyeing a net gain of three seats to flip the chamber