Overview

• CBO’s Aug. 11 distributional analysis predicts about 10 million additional uninsured over the next decade through 2034, including 7.5 million losing Medicaid and 2.1 million losing ACA exchange coverage.
• New work requirements are expected to cut Medicaid benefits for up to 5.3 million nondisabled adults and reduce SNAP participation by roughly 2.4 million.
• The law’s permanent tax cuts and new deductions will boost resources for the top 10 percent by about $13,600 annually while costing the lowest decile around $1,200 each year.
• Federal deficits are projected to climb by approximately $3.3 trillion over the next decade as a result of the legislation’s permanent tax cuts and spending measures.
• Considerable uncertainty surrounds these projections because state-level decisions on work rules and eligibility checks will determine the actual impact on coverage and budgets.