Overview
- New CBO projections trim the 2025–2035 deficit impact of higher tariffs to about $3 trillion, down from roughly $4 trillion estimated in August.
- The agency attributes about two-thirds of the downgrade to updated data, with the rest tied to recent tariff rate changes and rollbacks.
- CBO details a $2.5 trillion reduction in primary deficits plus $500 billion in lower interest costs if elevated duties persist through the period.
- Tariff receipts rose to about $309.2 billion from January through October 2025 versus $165.4 billion a year earlier, yet CRFB estimates $2,000 dividends would cost around $600 billion per round and roughly $6 trillion over a decade if annual.
- Most Republican lawmakers signal they prefer using tariff revenue to reduce debt, the checks would require congressional approval, and a pending Supreme Court case could undercut key levies.