Overview

• The CBO initially estimated a $3.4 trillion deficit increase for the law before adding $718 billion in interest costs to reach $4.1 trillion over 2025–2034.
• A CBO letter to Senator Jeff Merkley warns that making ten temporary tax relief measures permanent would boost the decade-long deficit impact to roughly $5 trillion.
• Federal debt held by the public is projected to rise by about 11.5 percentage points of GDP by the end of 2034 due to the legislation.
• Democrats seize on the analysis to denounce GOP fiscal policy as irresponsible, while Republicans defend the law’s growth and relief provisions.
• Increased federal borrowing tied to the bill is expected to push up borrowing costs for both the government and consumers, affecting mortgages, auto loans and credit cards.