Caution Grips Markets Before Fed Cut and Copom Hold as Bolsonaro Bid Lifts Brazil Risk

Overview

• Traders largely expect a 0.25 percentage point Fed cut on Dec. 10, with focus on signals for the pace of easing after stronger-than-forecast U.S. JOLTS data lifted Treasury yields intraday.
• Brazil’s Copom is forecast to keep the Selic at 15%, with economists emphasizing a data‑dependent path for the first cuts and debate centering on January versus March.
• Brazilian assets weakened after Senator Flávio Bolsonaro called his presidential bid “irreversible,” pushing the Ibovespa down roughly 1%, the real toward R$5.49 and long DI rates up, before partial stabilization and a dollar close near R$5.435.
• Political meetings by Flávio with Centrão leaders and public backing from São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas kept election uncertainty elevated, a risk investors say could linger in local pricing.
• Crypto traded on macro cues and corporate flows: bitcoin topped $91,000 on Dec. 8, dipped early Tuesday, then climbed above $93,000 later, as Michael Saylor said Strategy bought 10,624 BTC for $962.7 million and spot ETF flows showed mixed momentum.