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Caterpillar Earnings Beat Meets Sharp Sell-Off After Unchanged Guidance

The company kept its full-year revenue and tariff outlook unchanged, leaving investors to question whether AI-driven data‑centre demand can sustain the stock’s high valuation.

Overview

  • Caterpillar reported a third‑quarter adjusted profit of $7.20 a share and revenue of about $20.7 billion, beating Wall Street expectations on results released on Oct. 29, 2026.
  • The firm said its order backlog reached a record $78.1 billion, up about $6 billion from the prior quarter but growing more slowly than earlier in the year.
  • Management left full‑year revenue guidance in the mid‑to‑high teens and held the annual tariff cost forecast at roughly $2.2 billion, a decision that investors viewed as cautious.
  • Revenue in the machinery, power and energy segment rose about 18% year over year to roughly $19.65 billion, driven largely by demand for generators and large gas engines used in AI and data‑centre projects.
  • Shares fell more than 10% in premarket trading on Oct. 29, 2026 as markets weighed elevated valuation levels, higher financing costs from interest rates, regulatory and credit risks for hyperscalers, and the uncertain pace of order conversion.