Overview
- Aliança Catalana is projected at 19–20 seats, level with Junts, as Junts faces a loss of roughly 15–16 seats compared with its current representation.
- The PSC remains first with about 38–40 seats and ERC rises to roughly 22–23, while Vox is set to overtake the PP with 13–14 seats versus 12–13.
- A left‑leaning bloc of PSC, ERC and Comuns could reach about 69 seats, just over the 68 needed for an absolute majority, whereas an independence alignment would fall short.
- CEO data show strong voter transfers toward Aliança—about 21% from Junts plus inflows from Vox, PP and PSC—while only around 48% of its voters prefer full independence.
- The CEO director urges caution, noting small provincial samples that could overstate Aliança in Girona and Lleida, and reporting indicates Vox plans to avoid open confrontation with Orriols’s party for now.