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1h ago

Caroline de Toni Overtakes Carlos Bolsonaro in Santa Catarina Senate Poll as Mello Leads Governor Race

A new Neokemp survey points to a shifting Senate field in Santa Catarina, with low rejection helping Caroline de Toni consolidate an early advantage.

Jorginho Mello mantém a ponta na disputa pela reeleição no governo de Santa Catarina.
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Carlos Bolsonaro se despede do Rio para disputar Senado por SC
Carol de Toni supera Carlos Bolsonaro e é a favorita na preferência do eleitorado catarinense ao Senado.

Overview

  • Neokemp’s Nov. 10–11 poll puts Caroline de Toni at 25.4% to Carlos Bolsonaro’s 21.6% in the main first-vote Senate scenario, reversing an October edge for Carlos.
  • In the simulated second vote for the two-seat contest, De Toni leads with 23.1%, followed by Esperidião Amin at 20.6% and Carlos Bolsonaro at 17.8%.
  • Combining first and second votes, De Toni reaches 53.5% versus 38.9% for Carlos, an aggregate that underscores her broader competitiveness.
  • Rejection ratings show a stark contrast, with Carlos Bolsonaro and Décio Lima at 37% each while De Toni registers 4.2%, the lowest among tested Senate names.
  • For governor, Jorginho Mello holds a clear lead at 39.5% in a scenario including Décio Lima and records 61.1% job approval, in a URA survey of 1,008 voters across 90 municipalities with a ±3.1-point margin of error.