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53m ago

Carney’s Budget Faces Knife-Edge Confidence Vote in Minority Parliament

With the Liberals short of a working majority, passage hinges on opposition abstentions to avoid a snap election.

Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney makes a live address on Canada’s plan to build a stronger economy, in advance of the 2025 Budget, in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, October 22, 2025. REUTERS/Patrick Doyle
Finance and National Revenue Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne is applauded by members of the Liberal party as he delivers the federal budget speech in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Tuesday, November 4, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick
Image
Prime Minister Mark Carney (right) and Minister of Finance and National Revenue Francois-Philippe Champagne hold up copies of the budget as they pose for a photograph before the tabling of the federal budget on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, on November 4. (AP)

Overview

  • MPs are set to vote at 6:45 p.m. ET on Prime Minister Mark Carney’s first budget, a confidence test that could trigger an early election if it fails.
  • The Liberals hold 170 of 343 seats but can count on only 169 votes because the Speaker is a Liberal who votes only to break ties, leaving the government reliant on opposition support or absences.
  • Conservatives and the Bloc Québécois say they will oppose the plan, while NDP sources indicate up to five of seven New Democrats could vote against it with some, including interim leader Don Davies, expected to abstain.
  • Green MP Elizabeth May says she is in talks with the government about potentially helping pass the budget, and a senior Liberal source expects narrow passage based on opposition abstentions despite votes not being fully secured.
  • Carney’s budget proposes more than C$140 billion in new spending over five years with internal savings of about C$60 billion and a near-term deficit of roughly C$78.3 billion, framed as a response to U.S. tariffs and economic uncertainty.