Overview
- After a Conservative MP crossed the floor, the Liberals are within two votes of a majority and are highlighting local projects that could entice opposition MPs to support or abstain on the confidence vote.
- The plan outlines nearly C$90 billion in net new measures over five years and a projected C$78.3 billion deficit for 2025/26, with federal debt-to-GDP expected to reach about 43% by 2026/27.
- Ottawa is touting a 10-year, C$51 billion local infrastructure fund and higher capital outlays, but TD Economics and other analysts say much of the funding is repurposed and question the strength of the fiscal anchors.
- The budget introduces temporary first‑year writeoffs for business investment and other incentives the government says could help attract up to C$1 trillion in private capital.
- A shift in tone toward oil and gas includes the possibility of dropping an emissions cap if carbon markets, methane rules and large-scale carbon capture meet conditions and broadening Canada Infrastructure Bank support, though experts say key details remain unclear.