Overview

• Prime Minister Mark Carney held a working Oval Office meeting and lunch with President Donald Trump on Tuesday, with both sides downplaying chances of a breakthrough.
• No agreement was announced, though Canadian sources and industry voices described hopes for limited steel tariff relief that could later guide talks on other sectors.
• Canada faces 50% U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, 25% on autos and new 25% duties on heavy trucks starting Nov. 1, alongside lumber levies, contributing to a Q2 GDP decline of 1.5%.
• The visit came as the U.S. Trade Representative indicated the USMCA review may proceed bilaterally with Canada and Mexico rather than through a single trilateral process.
• Carney is under sharp domestic pressure after rolling back some counter-tariffs and dropping a digital services tax, while Trump’s “51st state” remarks have further strained relations.