Overview

• The study projects that more than 70% of tropical western Atlantic reefs will cease growth by about 2040, increasing to over 99% by 2100 if warming reaches 2°C.
• Sea-level rise is expected to outpace vertical accretion, raising water depth above reefs by roughly 0.3–0.5 meters by 2060 across scenarios.
• By 2100, depth increases reach about 0.7 meters for warming above 2°C and could approach 1.2 meters under higher warming, elevating coastal flooding exposure.
• Projections draw on fossil reef records merged with contemporary ecological surveys from more than 400 locations including Florida, Mexican Mesoamerica, the Gulf of Mexico, and Bonaire.
• Authors attribute declining growth to bleaching, disease, and poor water quality, and conclude restoration alone cannot offset losses without rapid emissions cuts and improved land and water management.