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Carbon Budget for 1.5°C Will Be Exhausted by Early 2028, Scientists Warn

Record greenhouse gas emissions have worsened Earth's energy imbalance, accelerating sea-level rise, shrinking the window to limit warming to 1.5°C.

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Firefighters during the Thompson fire in Oroville, California, 2024. Credit: UPI / Alamy Stock Photo.
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Overview

  • Scientists estimate that from the start of 2025, just 130 billion tonnes of CO₂ remain to keep warming below 1.5 °C, a budget that will be used up by around early 2028 at current emission rates.
  • Global greenhouse gas emissions reached a record 53.6 billion tonnes in 2024, marking the highest annual total and rising steadily since the last IPCC report.
  • The Earth's energy imbalance—the gap between incoming solar energy and outgoing heat—has nearly doubled over the past two decades, trapping more excess heat in the climate system.
  • Sea levels have risen at an accelerated rate of about 4.3 mm per year since 2019, more than double the long-term average, heightening risks to coastal communities.
  • Researchers warn that swift emissions cuts over the next decade are crucial to slowing warming and reducing the frequency of extreme weather events.