Overview

• CAP modeling concludes that the combination of 2025 tariffs and the One Big Beautiful Bill will leave all but the top 1% with lower after-tax incomes in 2027.
• Middle-income households are projected to lose about 1.2%, or roughly $1,300, even after accounting for tax cuts.
• The poorest fifth are expected to be $1,650 poorer in 2027, a 3.4% decline, with tariff costs making up most of the hit.
• The top 1% are projected to gain nearly $5,000 in 2027 because OBBBA benefits exceed their tariff costs.
• By 2029, the report projects income losses for every group, and the administration disputes the analysis while touting growth benefits.