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2mo ago

Canadian Liberals Narrowly Overtake Conservatives in Polls Ahead of Potential Election

Leadership changes, U.S. trade threats, and shifting voter priorities drive a dramatic turnaround for the Liberal Party.

Donald Trump’s tariffs seem to have hurt Canada’s Conservatives in the polls.
L-R: Former House Leader Karina Gould, former Liberal MP Frank Baylis, former Finance Minister and Deputy Prime Minister of Canada Chrystia Freeland, and former Governor of the bank of Canada Mark Carney in Montreal on February 25, 2025.
Canada's Liberal Party leadership candidates, former House leader Karina Gould shakes hands with former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney, near former Liberal MP Frank Baylis, and former Deputy Prime Minister and Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland, on the day of an English language debate ahead of the March 9 vote to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, in Montreal, Quebec, Canada, February 25, 2025. REUTERS/Evan Buhler/File Photo
The Peace Tower is pictured on Parliament Hill in Ottawa on Wednesday, Jan. 8, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick

Overview

  • The Liberals have surged to 38% support in recent Ipsos polling, narrowly ahead of the Conservatives at 36%, reversing a 26-point deficit from six weeks ago.
  • Justin Trudeau's resignation as prime minister and the upcoming Liberal leadership race on March 9 have reinvigorated the party's appeal to voters.
  • Economic instability, driven by U.S. President Donald Trump's proposed tariffs on Canadian exports, has shifted voter focus from domestic issues to international challenges.
  • The Liberal resurgence is most pronounced in Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada, while the Conservatives maintain strong support in the Prairies and Alberta.
  • A no-confidence vote by opposition parties on March 24 could force an early election, with polls indicating a tight race and no clear path to a majority government.