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4mo ago

Canadian Housing Market Balances as U.S. Trade Policies Pressure Builders

Canada's resale market stabilizes nationally, while Edmonton leads price growth and Calgary faces affordability challenges.

Today's "murkier economic landscape" means there is more room for negotiation on home prices, says a new report on real estate from RBC Economics.
Lumber tariffs are already impacting American businesses from home remodelling to construction projects as about 70 to 80 per cent of the lumber imported by the United States comes from Canada.
New home builds are seen on the southeast edge of Calgary on Thursday, February 27, 2025.
Royal LePage predicts that Edmonton’s average price of a home will increase nine per cent by the end of 2025 to nearly $503,000.

Overview

  • Canada's resale housing market now reflects balanced conditions with a sales-to-new-listings ratio of 46%, though Edmonton remains a seller’s market above 60%.
  • Edmonton is forecast to see a 9% rise in home prices by the end of 2025, making it one of the strongest growth markets in Canada.
  • Calgary's resale activity has dropped significantly, with a 17% year-over-year decline and affordability issues, as the benchmark price for single-family homes reaches $760,000.
  • U.S. new home starts fell over 11% in March, the largest decline since April 2020, driven by rising input costs and uncertainty from volatile trade policies.
  • Tariffs on Canadian lumber have increased costs for over 60% of U.S. homebuilders, contributing to inflationary pressures and dampened builder confidence.