Particle.news
Download on the App Store

Canadian Banks Set to Report Q4 Results as Rich Valuations Face a Test

Investors will gauge whether fee-driven strength can sustain rich valuations.

Overview

  • Scotiabank reports Tuesday, RBC and National Bank follow Wednesday, and BMO, CIBC and TD close out on Thursday for quarters ended Oct. 31.
  • Analysts expect solid results led by investment banking, wealth management and other fee-based businesses as credit metrics stabilize.
  • Shares of the big six are up about 32% this year and trade at roughly 12.9 times forward earnings, a premium that heightens the risk from any earnings miss, according to Jefferies and CIBC.
  • LSEG estimates point to fourth-quarter net income growth ranging from 3.5% to 41.9%, with loan-loss provisions rising 5%–32% at five banks and falling 46% at BMO.
  • Heavy buybacks near $45 million last quarter and CET1 ratios around 13.5% provide capital flexibility, while markets watch U.S.-Canada trade uncertainty, consumer mortgage renewals and U.S. exposure to private credit and non-bank lenders.