Overview

• S&P Global forecasts oil sands output will average 3.5 million barrels per day this year, marking a 5% rise over 2024.
• Production is projected to climb to 3.9 million bpd by 2030, topping previous 10-year outlooks by nearly 3%.
• Asset optimization, efficiency gains and favorable economics are driving growth and reducing breakeven costs after upfront investments.
• Canadian producers have maintained spending and production guidance through market swings, demonstrating greater resilience than U.S. counterparts.
• High-quality reserves in Alberta’s Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin support long-term expansion even as pipeline constraints and price dips pose risks.