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2d ago

Canada's Liberals Maintain Slim Edge as Election Day Nears

Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberals lead in polls, but a tightening race with Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives raises the prospect of a minority government.

Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre, left to right, Liberal Leader Mark Carney and New Democratic Party Leader Jagmeet Singh participate in the English-language federal leaders' debate in Montreal on April 17, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Adrian Wyld
Federal Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre holds a Canada First Rally For Change, in Vaughan on Tuesday April 22, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Chris Young
An image of Pierre Poilievre with an apple floating in front of his face, like the famous painting by Rene Magritte. The background is a blurry Parliament.
This composite image shows, left to right, Liberal Leader Mark Carney on March 21, 2025; Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre on March 4, 2025; NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh on Jan. 22, 2025, in Ottawa. With just three weeks to go until election day, Canada's federal party leaders are back on the road today.

Overview

  • The latest News-Globe and Mail-Nanos poll shows the Liberals at 42.9% support, just 3.6 points ahead of the Conservatives at 39.3%, reflecting a narrowing gap in the final days of the campaign.
  • Projections by 338Canada forecast the Liberals winning 186 seats, enough for a majority in the expanded 343-seat House of Commons, though a minority government remains possible if the race tightens further.
  • Mark Carney has focused his campaign on confronting U.S. tariffs and sovereignty threats under President Trump, while Pierre Poilievre has emphasized domestic issues like affordability and crime.
  • A record 7.3 million Canadians cast early ballots, signaling heightened voter engagement ahead of the April 28 federal election.
  • Both leaders are intensifying efforts in key battleground ridings, with Carney targeting Ontario's industrial regions and Poilievre focusing on affordability concerns in suburban and rural areas.