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3mo ago

Canada’s Liberals Lead in Final Stretch of Election Campaign

Mark Carney’s Liberals hold a polling edge over Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives as record early voting and U.S. trade tensions reshape voter priorities.

Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney attends a rally during his Liberal Party election campaign tour in Laval, Quebec, Canada April 22, 2025. REUTERS/Carlos Osorio
Canadian conservative leader Pierre Poilievre (L) and liberal leader Mark Carney (R) during the English-language federal leaders' debate ahead of Canada's federal election. Credit: The Canadian Press / Alamy Stock Photo
(FILES) Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre (L) and Canadian Prime Minister and Liberal Party chief Mark Carney shake hands following the English Federal Leaders Debate broadcast at CBC-Radio-Canada, in Montreal, Canada, on April 17, 2025. The candidates to lead Canada after next week's election took starkly different paths to the height of national politics. Mark Carney, the Liberal Party leader, has never held elected office. The former central banker took over as prime minister just a few weeks ago, after parachuting into politics and winning a race to replace Justin Trudeau as Liberal leader. Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre was first elected to parliament in 2004, at age 25, and over two decades in Ottawa has moved up the political ranks, polishing his skills in debate and in delivering partisan blows. (Photo by Christopher Katsarov / POOL / AFP) (Photo by CHRISTOPHER KATSAROV/POOL/AFP via Getty Images)
Conservative Party Leader Pierre Poilievre gestures after speaking during a federal election campaign stop in Montréal-Est, Que., Friday, April 18, 2025. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Christopher Katsarov

Overview

  • A record 7.3 million Canadians cast early ballots, marking a 25% increase from the 2021 election and signaling heightened voter engagement.
  • Recent Nanos polls show the Liberals leading nationally by 5 to 7 points, positioning them for a potential majority in the 343-seat House of Commons.
  • Prime Minister Mark Carney has campaigned on defending Canadian sovereignty against U.S. President Trump’s tariffs and annexation rhetoric.
  • Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives emphasize tax cuts, spending reductions, and border security, aiming to address cost-of-living concerns and economic growth.
  • Quebec remains a pivotal battleground, with Carney appealing to voters as the best candidate to protect the province’s distinct identity in U.S. trade negotiations.