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Canada’s Inflation Steady at 1.7% as Price Gains Cool

Officials will await June’s inflation report before choosing whether to hold the policy rate at 2.75% in late July.

A person browses a grocery store following the announcement of tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods by U.S. President Donald Trump, in Toronto, Ontario, Canada March 4, 2025. REUTERS/Arlyn McAdorey/File Photo
A person browses a grocery store following the announcement of tariffs on Canadian and Mexican goods by U.S. President Donald Trump, in Toronto, Ontario, Canada March 4, 2025. REUTERS/Arlyn McAdorey/File Photo
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A shopper pushes a shopping carts as they leave a Real Canadian Superstore in Ottawa on Tuesday, June 25, 2024. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Sean Kilpatrick

Overview

  • Statistics Canada reported that annual consumer inflation in May remained unchanged at 1.7%, matching April’s year-over-year rate.
  • Shelter costs rose 3% in May, down from 3.4% in April, while food price growth slowed to 3.3% and gasoline costs fell further following the removal of the carbon tax.
  • The Bank of Canada’s preferred core inflation gauges—CPI-trim and CPI-median—both eased to 3%, sitting at the upper edge of its one-to-three-percent target range.
  • Money markets assign about a 62% probability that the BoC will keep its policy rate at 2.75% on July 30, with policymakers highlighting June data as key to their decision.
  • Economists caution that ongoing trade frictions with the United States could maintain economic weakness and influence the central bank’s future rate-cut prospects.