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Canada’s Food Price Report Forecasts 4%–6% Grocery Inflation in 2026

Researchers cite a beef supply squeeze as the key driver.

Overview

  • For a typical family of four, annual food costs are projected to rise by about $994.63 to roughly $17,571.79.
  • Meat is expected to post the biggest increases, with beef potentially up as much as 7% as tight supplies persist into 2027 and substitution pushes up chicken and pork prices.
  • The 16th annual report, produced by Dalhousie’s Agri‑Food Analytics Lab with university partners, uses a single standardized model after last year’s forecast largely matched CPI outcomes.
  • Restaurants are also forecast to face 4%–6% price growth, raising menu prices and straining already pressured operators.
  • Drivers cited include trade and tariff risks, climate events, shifts in manufacturing and retail, labour conditions and macro factors, with regional impacts varying and food insecurity already elevated.