Overview

• Warmer-than-normal conditions with fewer fall storms are expected from mid-September into October across most of Canada.
• A more active pattern is forecast for November, producing an abrupt transition to early-winter conditions, with the West turning colder first and the East following later in the month.
• Wildfire danger and smoke are projected to linger in Western Canada for several weeks until the rainy season begins, despite some cooling.
• Warm northern Pacific waters elevate the risk of episodes of excessive rain along British Columbia’s coast even if the overall number of storms stays near typical.
• Atlantic Canada’s precipitation outlook remains uncertain, with late-September or early-October remnants of tropical systems potentially boosting rainfall.