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Canada’s Economy Shrinks as U.S. Tariffs Bite, Auto Exports Plunge

Tariff damage to key manufacturing sectors pushed output lower, sharpening focus on the Bank of Canada's September call.

Overview

  • Statistics Canada reported Q2 real GDP fell at a 1.6% annualized pace, or 0.4% quarter over quarter, marking the first contraction since late 2023.
  • International exports of passenger cars and light trucks dropped 24.7% in the quarter, and business investment weakened with machinery and equipment spending down 9.4%.
  • Monthly GDP slipped 0.1% in June for a third straight decline in goods-producing industries, with an advance estimate pointing to a 0.1% uptick in July.
  • Counter-tariffs reduced imports, partially offsetting the export slump, while faster inventory accumulation and higher government and household spending provided limited support.
  • Ottawa pledged support for autos and manufacturing, economists said the data strengthens the case for the Bank of Canada to hold rates next month, and markets diverged with a flat TSX as U.S. indexes notched fresh records after key earnings.