Overview
- Statistics Canada reported a 0.3% drop in August GDP, the fourth contraction in five months after July was revised up to 0.3% growth.
- An advance indicator points to a 0.1% gain in September, implying roughly 0.4% annualized growth for Q3 that could avert a technical recession, though the estimate may change.
- Manufacturing fell 0.5% in August and remains the hardest hit sector by U.S. tariffs, while mining, quarrying and oil and gas extraction declined 0.7%.
- Services weakened as transportation and warehousing slipped, including a sharp drop in air transport tied to an airline strike, with retail trade and real estate partially offsetting losses.
- Second-quarter GDP fell 1.6% annualized on export weakness linked to tariffs and trade uncertainty, and the Bank of Canada had penciled in about 0.5% growth for Q3.